Baccarat is a game of pure luck.
The game is played using a fixed set of rules for the player and
the dealer, and these rules represent the best odds of winning for
both the player and for the house. Calculations have been made that
show the odds of the player winning are 44.62%, losing 45.85%, and
9.53% to tie. Thus it would seem to be to your advantage to bet on
the house winning on every hand.
To even out the odds the house charges a commission (usually 5%)
on winning player bets placed on the house. How should this change
the way a player wagers?
Factoring in the commission it turns out that you are still slightly
better off by betting that the house will win. This assumes the commission
is the usual 5%, however, should the commission change then you have
to change strategy. If the commission is less than 5% then it is
always to your advantage to bet with the house, while if the commission
is more than 5% it pays to bet on the player winning.
Removing the tie hands in the event there is no payoff, the odds
of the player winning are 49.32% and for losing 50.68%. For various
commissions we can calculate the following average payoffs then,
assuming 100 wagers of $1 were made.
4%
commission |
Betting on the player |
Betting with the house |
| Winning |
$49.32 |
|
| Losing |
$50.68 |
$49.32 |
| Difference |
($1.36) |
($0.67) |
| You lose less by betting with the dealer. |
5%
commission |
Betting on the player |
Betting with the house |
| Winning |
$49.32 |
|
| Losing |
$50.68 |
$49.32
|
| Difference |
($1.36) |
($1.17)
|
| You lose less by betting with
the dealer. |
6%
commission |
Betting on the player |
Betting with the house |
| Winning |
$49.32 |
|
| Losing |
$50.68 |
$49.32
|
| Difference |
($1.36) |
($1.68)
|
| You lose less by betting with
the dealer. |
Baccarat sometimes allows for a bet to be made for a tie, and sometimes
doesn't (mini baccarat typically played online usually does). Although
the odds of 8 to 1 may sound appealing, it is considered one of
the worst wagers in the casino, so don't bother making this bet
part of your baccarat strategy.
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